I've spent way too much time learning to play Basic Strategy Blackjack. Have worked my way through the practice games on the internet, the math and probabilities and now it is time to start playing for real money.
I decided it would be a good idea to start small and work my way up so I would appreciate what I build up and value each play more than if it was only cash I threw in. I am consistently winning 19 out of 20 rounds on the computer and have now gone to the local Indian casino to play their video blackjack games. They start out at $1 and go as high as $10. A little more restrictive than the $5 tables with real people but a good way to learn.
Last week I went up with $20 and came back with $44.
Today I returned and following is my report
Just returned from up the hill at Table Mountain Casino.
Arrived on the free Monday & Wednesday bus at 10:30 AM. Got my free $5 of play and my free bottle of water, along with everybody else, as I exited the bus. Placed my first bet at 10:45 and went through 45 minutes of hell. Lost $26 of my precious $44 dollars. I have never seen a run of luck, lack of skill or crooked game this bad. This is a reputable video game called Game King...I don't have enough cash, skill or chutzpah to play at the tables with the Big Boys. I eventually pulled the plug and retreated to the restaurant, in a blurred suicidal funk, to get a cup of coffee and analyze my nightmare. I had heard the Indian casinos were not regulated by anybody except themselves and I was now very suspicious. It was hell.
I confess to contemplating the thick Red Elastic Lanyard, attached to your Players Card with a clip so you won't walk away from the machine, leaving your card, on the other end of the lanyard, behind in the machine....."I wonder if it will hold my weight from the stall frame or break, leaving me not only destroyed, but humiliated as well?
But, with $18, a $5 play voucher and $2 in my pocket I decided to figure out where I had screwed up. I write down all my plays in a notebook as I play, so I sat there and analyzed them.
I had played 90 hands. I could tell something was off while I was playing. The rhythm was just way way off. You usually win one or two, dealer wins one or two and occasionally either side wins 3(12% probability), 4 (6% probability) or even 5 (3% probability) in a row. Plus, bear in mind the probability of winning or losing 3 in a row is a subset of the probability of 4 or 5 in a row.
In the same 90 hands the machine had 5 strings of 3 winning hands in a row (1:8 probability), 1 string of 5 winning hands (1:33 probability) and 1 string of 6 winning hands (1:66 probability). Almost 1/3 of the hands the machine dealt itself were in strings. Meanwhile, I had only 2 strings of 3 winning hands. The interesting thing is that the mix of won, lost and pushed hands was almost spot on the anticipated outcome. I won't bore you with any more statistics but the way I play is to keep track, in my mind of how many wins and losses both sides have had and increase my bet when I think the pattern is going to swing. Clearly, if it doesn't swing I get murdered, losing higher bets I had anticipated winning. Today I got murdered and murdered yet again.
The Blackjacks were wacky also. A black jack should be a 1:25 occurrence with blackjacks accruing equally to both sides. In 90 hands you would expect me to have about 1.5 blackjacks and the machine to have 1.5 black jacks. In 45 minutes I had 1 Blackjack (pays 150% of the amount bet) and the machine had 5 Blackjacks.
But, in for a penny, in for a pound; Dreams die hard. With the remaining $18 (less than I started with last week) in my pocket, plus $5 the casino gives me for taking the free bus and $2 of my own meager cash I returned, once more, to the machines, depressed with 4 months of sweat and dreams evaporating like fog on a sunny morning. I vowed that, when this last trickle of cash had evaporated, and surely it would, I would declare myself finished forever with Blackjack...or at least until I could figure out my my failure.
The remainder of the afternoon was my own personal version of shock and awe. No more long, long strings of losses. The cards performed exactly as my computer simulations said they should. The Rhythm felt just like it should, although I was squeamish in my bet acceleration, afraid of getting my finger bitten off. Apparently, in my earlier play, I had just passed through a stretch of statistically very bad road in The Twilight Zone.. Tonight I will run an analysis of my first round to see how far out of our reality dimension the road really was.
I played an additional 900 hands. I no longer have $44 in my bank. I now have $118 in my bank. I took a few breaks, had a literally well-earned buffet lunch. My play continued within expectations. This is a profit of $74 for about 3 hours of play. My estimate of playing at $1, with the severe statistical and betting limitations of the video system was $22 - $24 per hour, so somehow it all leveled out and, in the words of John Steinbeck, "The World is running on greased grooves again". \
I left the casino with almost exactly what my simulations projected. And, the $74 does not include the $7, after senior discount, buffet I treated my self to, the first senior discount I have ever taken or enjoyed. Food was OK. Vindication was priceless.
During the day I placed about $1,600 in bets and kept my original $44 plus $74 new friends from Table Mountains casino vault. By way of thanks for this rescue the casino will also mail me about $4 in a monthly check for my playing volume - Every little bit helps.
Never even noticed the noise, uncomfortable chair or confusion today. Plus, somebody had moved and remodeled the poorly placed, illogical and confusing buttons on the mission. Today they were just right and no more betting $10 when all I really wanted to risk was $1.
I have ruled out Blackjack as an expensive hobby. It will now be either an inexpensive hobby or, perhaps, an income source. But, obstacles remain. Let's not count our Blackjacks before they are dealt.
I have returned the money I borrowed from myself last week, using it to buya needed groceries at the Walmart in whose parking lot the Monday Wednesday bus operates. I now play only on free money earned gambling. I plan to keep at the video machines until my bank is at $250 - $350 or wiped out. I will start polishing my computer table simulation play next week and then slowly stick my toes into the $5 tables which will be slower than the video games, 100 hands per hour at the table as opposed to 300 hands per hour at the machine, but statistically richer....At least that is what my simulations tell me. I plan to waste $50 - $100 getting the hang of the tables. I will have to remember a lot more in my head as I am pretty sure it is not considered cool to sit at the Blackjack table with a notepad and a packet of sharpened pencils. The nature of the system is such that the bigger the hands, the more favorable the rules are to the player. The minimum/maximum bet spread of $1 - $10 on the video game offers about 4-5% margin for the house, the $5 -$300 table offers about 3% margin for the house and the $25 - $3000 table offers about 2% for the house.
In Las Vegas the margin goes down to about 8/10 of one percent for the house (along with Nevada regulatory oversight to keep everybody honest) and, in Macao the margin at the $25 table is 16/100 of one percent for the house.....That's about as close to even money as it gets. Compound all of this with the statistical projection that one standard deviation (the 34% area on either side of the bell curve - 68% total) after 10 hours of play at $10 per hand shows you have a 34% chance you will win about $2,000 and a 34% chance you will lose about $1,000. That is just playing statistically perfect blackjack (rote memorization) and no counting or betting systems. The profit is in Kenny Rogers, "You got to know when to Hold 'em and knowing when to Fold 'em". Sorry, waxing a little complex I guess. But each to his own hobbies...
This is a game that can be beat, and regularly is. I am finally beginning to understand how what I blindly stumbled on makes sense.....The numbers I am giving you are for people that have taken the very long time to memorize, feel comfortable with and understand the probabilities, never ever make mistakes and exercise the mental discipline and stamina to walk the walk. These super-persons prosper in the statistical 2% margin world. The statistical margins may be less than 2% but actual casino margins are closer to 20% of the money wagered on Blackjack so there are a lot of people losing money (why do you think they give free drinks to the players?), so the casinos love blackjack. But, there are also the smart well trained, well informed and well disciplined players who make good money. The casinos have their ways of dealing with the flashy break-the-bank players who splash $10,000 bets but can't tune their radar effectively to the moles-like-I-wanna-be who quietly move around a lot and are content with $250 - $500 per hour winnings.
So, I will return next Monday with my less-than-flashy $118 bank roll. As I said before, this bank is not to be friveled away on non-essential luxuries like food and rent. Perhaps I will take a page from Jons book and hide it where I won't lose it. Mail myself a letter to arrive next Monday with an $118 Postal Money Order. Meanwhile I practice, practice, practice.
Of course, it would also be nice to get my pickup all papered up so I could drive up any time I want instead of waiting for the Monday and Wednesday bus. That will have to be a high priority. Maybe higher than moving to the $5 table. What a luxury going to the casino when you actually want to. One of the other bigger casinos around here charges $38 for a bus but gives you a $15 food voucher and $25 of free play. Not sure, I am that self-confident yet.
Also need to get in a lot better physical shape to stay sharp for longer periods of time. I still make a lot of mistakes and was getting a little mind dumb today; Caught myself missing an opportunity to split to 8's. I got a a free coffee from the cute girl walking around with drinks. Perked me up fine but 5 minutes later I was so wired I couldn't focus and started making mistakes again. Next time only 1/2 cup. And if I get the pickup papered, I can take a nap, meditate or listen to music to clear my head. The casinos really don't have anywhere free to sit and relax. If you're not playin', you're not payin'.
Sorry to drag you through all the math and stuff, but all this helped organize my thoughts.
Doug
Feelin' perty good today!
Arrived on the free Monday & Wednesday bus at 10:30 AM. Got my free $5 of play and my free bottle of water, along with everybody else, as I exited the bus. Placed my first bet at 10:45 and went through 45 minutes of hell. Lost $26 of my precious $44 dollars. I have never seen a run of luck, lack of skill or crooked game this bad. This is a reputable video game called Game King...I don't have enough cash, skill or chutzpah to play at the tables with the Big Boys. I eventually pulled the plug and retreated to the restaurant, in a blurred suicidal funk, to get a cup of coffee and analyze my nightmare. I had heard the Indian casinos were not regulated by anybody except themselves and I was now very suspicious. It was hell.
I confess to contemplating the thick Red Elastic Lanyard, attached to your Players Card with a clip so you won't walk away from the machine, leaving your card, on the other end of the lanyard, behind in the machine....."I wonder if it will hold my weight from the stall frame or break, leaving me not only destroyed, but humiliated as well?
But, with $18, a $5 play voucher and $2 in my pocket I decided to figure out where I had screwed up. I write down all my plays in a notebook as I play, so I sat there and analyzed them.
I had played 90 hands. I could tell something was off while I was playing. The rhythm was just way way off. You usually win one or two, dealer wins one or two and occasionally either side wins 3(12% probability), 4 (6% probability) or even 5 (3% probability) in a row. Plus, bear in mind the probability of winning or losing 3 in a row is a subset of the probability of 4 or 5 in a row.
In the same 90 hands the machine had 5 strings of 3 winning hands in a row (1:8 probability), 1 string of 5 winning hands (1:33 probability) and 1 string of 6 winning hands (1:66 probability). Almost 1/3 of the hands the machine dealt itself were in strings. Meanwhile, I had only 2 strings of 3 winning hands. The interesting thing is that the mix of won, lost and pushed hands was almost spot on the anticipated outcome. I won't bore you with any more statistics but the way I play is to keep track, in my mind of how many wins and losses both sides have had and increase my bet when I think the pattern is going to swing. Clearly, if it doesn't swing I get murdered, losing higher bets I had anticipated winning. Today I got murdered and murdered yet again.
The Blackjacks were wacky also. A black jack should be a 1:25 occurrence with blackjacks accruing equally to both sides. In 90 hands you would expect me to have about 1.5 blackjacks and the machine to have 1.5 black jacks. In 45 minutes I had 1 Blackjack (pays 150% of the amount bet) and the machine had 5 Blackjacks.
But, in for a penny, in for a pound; Dreams die hard. With the remaining $18 (less than I started with last week) in my pocket, plus $5 the casino gives me for taking the free bus and $2 of my own meager cash I returned, once more, to the machines, depressed with 4 months of sweat and dreams evaporating like fog on a sunny morning. I vowed that, when this last trickle of cash had evaporated, and surely it would, I would declare myself finished forever with Blackjack...or at least until I could figure out my my failure.
The remainder of the afternoon was my own personal version of shock and awe. No more long, long strings of losses. The cards performed exactly as my computer simulations said they should. The Rhythm felt just like it should, although I was squeamish in my bet acceleration, afraid of getting my finger bitten off. Apparently, in my earlier play, I had just passed through a stretch of statistically very bad road in The Twilight Zone.. Tonight I will run an analysis of my first round to see how far out of our reality dimension the road really was.
I played an additional 900 hands. I no longer have $44 in my bank. I now have $118 in my bank. I took a few breaks, had a literally well-earned buffet lunch. My play continued within expectations. This is a profit of $74 for about 3 hours of play. My estimate of playing at $1, with the severe statistical and betting limitations of the video system was $22 - $24 per hour, so somehow it all leveled out and, in the words of John Steinbeck, "The World is running on greased grooves again". \
I left the casino with almost exactly what my simulations projected. And, the $74 does not include the $7, after senior discount, buffet I treated my self to, the first senior discount I have ever taken or enjoyed. Food was OK. Vindication was priceless.
During the day I placed about $1,600 in bets and kept my original $44 plus $74 new friends from Table Mountains casino vault. By way of thanks for this rescue the casino will also mail me about $4 in a monthly check for my playing volume - Every little bit helps.
Never even noticed the noise, uncomfortable chair or confusion today. Plus, somebody had moved and remodeled the poorly placed, illogical and confusing buttons on the mission. Today they were just right and no more betting $10 when all I really wanted to risk was $1.
I have ruled out Blackjack as an expensive hobby. It will now be either an inexpensive hobby or, perhaps, an income source. But, obstacles remain. Let's not count our Blackjacks before they are dealt.
I have returned the money I borrowed from myself last week, using it to buya needed groceries at the Walmart in whose parking lot the Monday Wednesday bus operates. I now play only on free money earned gambling. I plan to keep at the video machines until my bank is at $250 - $350 or wiped out. I will start polishing my computer table simulation play next week and then slowly stick my toes into the $5 tables which will be slower than the video games, 100 hands per hour at the table as opposed to 300 hands per hour at the machine, but statistically richer....At least that is what my simulations tell me. I plan to waste $50 - $100 getting the hang of the tables. I will have to remember a lot more in my head as I am pretty sure it is not considered cool to sit at the Blackjack table with a notepad and a packet of sharpened pencils. The nature of the system is such that the bigger the hands, the more favorable the rules are to the player. The minimum/maximum bet spread of $1 - $10 on the video game offers about 4-5% margin for the house, the $5 -$300 table offers about 3% margin for the house and the $25 - $3000 table offers about 2% for the house.
In Las Vegas the margin goes down to about 8/10 of one percent for the house (along with Nevada regulatory oversight to keep everybody honest) and, in Macao the margin at the $25 table is 16/100 of one percent for the house.....That's about as close to even money as it gets. Compound all of this with the statistical projection that one standard deviation (the 34% area on either side of the bell curve - 68% total) after 10 hours of play at $10 per hand shows you have a 34% chance you will win about $2,000 and a 34% chance you will lose about $1,000. That is just playing statistically perfect blackjack (rote memorization) and no counting or betting systems. The profit is in Kenny Rogers, "You got to know when to Hold 'em and knowing when to Fold 'em". Sorry, waxing a little complex I guess. But each to his own hobbies...
This is a game that can be beat, and regularly is. I am finally beginning to understand how what I blindly stumbled on makes sense.....The numbers I am giving you are for people that have taken the very long time to memorize, feel comfortable with and understand the probabilities, never ever make mistakes and exercise the mental discipline and stamina to walk the walk. These super-persons prosper in the statistical 2% margin world. The statistical margins may be less than 2% but actual casino margins are closer to 20% of the money wagered on Blackjack so there are a lot of people losing money (why do you think they give free drinks to the players?), so the casinos love blackjack. But, there are also the smart well trained, well informed and well disciplined players who make good money. The casinos have their ways of dealing with the flashy break-the-bank players who splash $10,000 bets but can't tune their radar effectively to the moles-like-I-wanna-be who quietly move around a lot and are content with $250 - $500 per hour winnings.
So, I will return next Monday with my less-than-flashy $118 bank roll. As I said before, this bank is not to be friveled away on non-essential luxuries like food and rent. Perhaps I will take a page from Jons book and hide it where I won't lose it. Mail myself a letter to arrive next Monday with an $118 Postal Money Order. Meanwhile I practice, practice, practice.
Of course, it would also be nice to get my pickup all papered up so I could drive up any time I want instead of waiting for the Monday and Wednesday bus. That will have to be a high priority. Maybe higher than moving to the $5 table. What a luxury going to the casino when you actually want to. One of the other bigger casinos around here charges $38 for a bus but gives you a $15 food voucher and $25 of free play. Not sure, I am that self-confident yet.
Also need to get in a lot better physical shape to stay sharp for longer periods of time. I still make a lot of mistakes and was getting a little mind dumb today; Caught myself missing an opportunity to split to 8's. I got a a free coffee from the cute girl walking around with drinks. Perked me up fine but 5 minutes later I was so wired I couldn't focus and started making mistakes again. Next time only 1/2 cup. And if I get the pickup papered, I can take a nap, meditate or listen to music to clear my head. The casinos really don't have anywhere free to sit and relax. If you're not playin', you're not payin'.
Sorry to drag you through all the math and stuff, but all this helped organize my thoughts.
Doug
Feelin' perty good today!
